Will Japan sink?

This is an odd, yet frequently asked question online. One that seems to come and go in cycles. And it is connected to environmental change.

The idea of Japan sinking is often associated with the country’s geological vulnerability to earthquakes and tsunamis due to its location along the Pacific Ring of Fire, where several tectonic plates converge. But the idea of Japan sinking entirely into the ocean is a misconception.

Japan’s landmass sits on multiple tectonic plates, primarily the Pacific Plate and the Philippine Sea Plate, which are continuously in motion. This motion can result in earthquakes, some of which can be very powerful, as seen in historical events like the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, or, more recently, the Noto earthquake in Ishikawa Prefecture that struck on January 1 2024. While these earthquakes can cause localized sinking or shifting of land, they do not pose a threat to the entire country sinking into the ocean.

The idea of Japan sinking is also often influenced by myths, legends, and artistic interpretations rather than scientific fact. Many Japanese literary works depict natural earthquakes and tsunamis. One of the most famous novels in recent times that popularized the idea of Japan sinking is “Nihon Chinbotsu” (日本沈没), translated as “Japan Sinks,” a novel written by Sakyo Komatsu and published in 1973.

In Komatsu’s novel, Japan faces a series of catastrophic geological events, including earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, leading to the gradual sinking of the entire country into the ocean. The story follows the struggles of the Japanese people as they attempt to cope with and survive these disasters.

While “Japan Sinks” is a work of fiction, it struck a chord with readers at the time of its publication and sparked discussions about Japan’s vulnerability to natural disasters due to its geological setting. The novel was adapted into various forms of media, including films, television series, and manga, further embedding the idea of Japan sinking into popular culture.

Another factor that intersects with the idea of Japan sinking today is rising sea levels due to climate change. While rising sea levels is a very real existential threat for many small island nations, such as Tuvalu, Marshall Islands, Cayman Islands, Bahamas and the Maldives, in the case of Japan, aside from significant coastal erosion, there is no geological basis for “sinking,” or submersion.

So the question “will Japan sink?” is a result of a mix of fictional and scientific perspectives, rooted in Japan’s susceptibility to natural disasters. But the idea of the entire country sinking into the ocean remains a product of imagination rather than a credible geological scenario.